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Robert G. Moser, Chair BAT 2.116, Mailcode A1800, Austin, TX 78712 • 512-471-5121

UT Poll Surveys Texans' Views on the Economy, Approval of Political Leaders, Election Match Ups, Policy Questions

Perry holds lead in primary, but many voters still undecided

Posted: July 9, 2009

Gov. Rick Perry holds a 12-point lead over probable challenger Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in next year’s Republican primary, though nearly one-third of likely voters are still undecided or would choose someone else, according to a poll conducted last month by researchers in the Department of Government and the Texas Politics project at the University of Texas at Austin.
 
The Texas Poll also found that Perry and President Barack Obama have nearly identical statewide approval ratings — 42 and 43%, respectively. Obama’s disapproval ratings (46%), however, are much higher than Perry’s (32%).
 
“The much anticipated match-up between Gov. Perry and Sen. Hutchison is proving to be a close one.  While the governor has pulled ahead in this and other recent polls, the race is still apparently very close, and a lot of people have yet to make up their minds,” said Texas Politics Project Director James Henson, who oversees the poll with government professor Daron Shaw.
 
"Both President Obama and Gov. Perry have comparably favorable approval ratings, though for quite disparate reasons,” said Shaw. “Obama appears to still be in something of a honeymoon phase, with little backlash for spending policies that don't appeal to many Texans. In contrast, Perry is riding relatively high after a series of media events in which he took a hard line stance against expansive federal government." 
 
The poll’s other findings include:
 
•       Over 70% of Democrats remain undecided in their party’s race for governor, with 12% backing songwriter and humorist Kinky Friedman and 2 percent behind former ambassador Tom Schieffer, the only declared candidate. State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, who is no longer in the race, receives 7 percent support.

•       A race to replace Hutchison in the Senate would be wide open: 62% of voters are undecided. Among eight potential candidates, former Democratic comptroller John Sharp has 10% support with Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst at 9 percent.
 
•       Texans agree with Perry and the GOP on two prominent legislative issues. By a 43-36% margin, respondents oppose taking $500 million in federal stimulus money for unemployment benefits. By a 70-17% margin, they want to require voters to show a photo ID at the polls.

•       More than three quarters of those surveyed say the country is worse off economically than one year ago while 41% say they are personally worse off. 

In the marquee GOP governor’s race, Perry has the support of  38% of voters who said they plan to vote in the primary with Hutchison drawing 26%. Thirty Four percent are undecided or say they support someone else. Perry also led Hutchison by 11% among all registered voters.  The primary match up has a margin of error of 5.14% for all voters and 5.24% for registered voters.
 
“Each side can find some solace in the fact that neither claims more than a third of the electorate at this moment," Shaw said
 
The poll surveyed 924 Texans online from June 11-22. It has a margin of error of 3.22%. For complete results, please visit Texas Politics, which also features graphics of key results as well as data files.

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