Sustainable Water Management for the Paso del Norte Border Region

 

This proposal is under review at the US Environmental Protection Agency.  It is included here for its useful background information on the Paso del Norte region.

 

Project Abstract

Sorting Code: 98-NCERQ-M1

Title: Rehabilitation of the Riparian Ecosystem in the Water-Scarce El Paso/Juárez Region

Investigators: Jurgen Schmandt (HARC/Univ. of Texas-Austin); Ismael Aguilar (ITESM); Chip Groat (UT-El Paso); Juliet Stromberg (Arizona State Univ.); Gerardo Ceballos (UNAM); William Mackay (UT-El Paso); Nancy Lowery (UTEP); Mitch Mathis (HARC); Jesus Navar (UANL); Carlos Rincón (EDF); Denis Soden (UTEP); Chandler Stolp (UT-Austin); Sue Watts (UTEP); George Ward (UT-Austin); Neal Armstrong (UT-Austin)

Institution: Houston Advanced Research Center

Project Period: October 1, 1998 – September 30, 2001

Research Category: Water and Watersheds – Freshwater Ecosystem Restoration

The project seeks to advance the understanding of opportunities for and obstacles to rehabilitating riparian ecosystems in a multi-jurisdictional, water-scarce environment. The study region – which lies on the Rio Grande/Río Bravo on borders between Texas, New Mexico, and Mexico – suffers from water scarcity and significant degradation of its riparian ecosystems. Socio-economic factors in this arid area may exacerbate these problems and restrict opportunities for rehabilitation. Our working hypothesis is that the potential and need for riparian rehabilitation exists, but that capturing this potential requires an understanding of the complex interactions of human behavior and the ecosystem.

The project uses a unique "civic science" approach that integrates scientific assessment with extensive stakeholder input. A team of natural and social scientists from Mexico and the US will carry out the scientific assessment using a variety of methodologies and modeling techniques. A task force of professional experts and civic leaders will produce a regional action plan for rehabilitation. Numerous opportunities for structured interaction between researchers and stakeholders are part of the project design.

Phase 1 of the project establishes an integrated benchmark report that characterizes basic trends in, and interrelationships among, (1) ecosystem integrity, (2) water quantity, quality and management, (3) and social and economic conditions. A Policy Delphi Survey of a sample of residents in Mexico, Texas, and New Mexico is conducted to solicit their priorities and goals of rehabilitation and water management. A region-specific Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) is developed. A Task Force on Rehabilitation is convened. Phase 2 will determine technically, economically, and socially feasible options for rehabilitation and assess the consequences of these options. In Phase 3, the Task Force will produce a prioritized action and implementation plan for rehabilitation. Project results will be presented at a workshop on rehabilitation in arid river basins.

Expected Results

This project will enhance understanding of the technical and social options for rehabilitation of the riparian ecosystem in the El Paso/Juárez region. This information will be the base for a draft action plan for rehabilitation. Furthermore, we expect to advance the general understanding of the potential for and limitations to restoration in multi-jurisdictional, water-scarce regions. Finally, the project will refine processes for integrating multi-disciplinary research with stakeholder input, and for the evaluation of stakeholder preferences regarding rehabilitation options.

Supplemental Keywords: ground water, habitat, environmental asset, decision-making, arid environments, integrated assessment, water management, EPA region 6.

Project Description

  1. Objectives

The project seeks to advance the understanding of opportunities for and obstacles to rehabilitating riparian ecosystems in a multi-jurisdictional, water-scarce environment. The study region – which lies on the Rio Grande/Río Bravo on borders between Texas, New Mexico, and Mexico – suffers from water scarcity and significant degradation of its riparian ecosystems. Socio-economic factors in this arid area may exacerbate these problems and restrict opportunities for rehabilitation. Our working hypothesis is that the potential and need for riparian rehabilitation exists, but that capturing this potential requires an understanding of the complex interactions of human behavior and the ecosystem.

The Fresh Water Imperative (Naiman et al 1995) ranked restoration/rehabilitation as the number one priority for freshwater ecosystems. Most research and projects involving rehabilitation of freshwater ecosystems have been located in water-rich areas (see case studies in NRC 1992 and progress reports in USEPA 1998). Rehabilitation will be more difficult in the study region – the Elephant Butte-Fort Quitman sub-basin of the Rio Grande/Río Bravo – where rapid urban growth and agricultural irrigation have destroyed much of the natural ecology, rainfall is sparse (8 inches per year), ground and surface waters are scarce, two countries and three states manage the river, and rural and urban interests compete for water. If rehabilitation can make a difference here, it should be possible in other arid or semi-arid regions. Thus, the research should answers three questions:

    1. Which options exist for rehabilitation of the freshwater ecosystem in the region?
    2. What role can rehabilitation play in a more sustainable water management strategy?
    3. What can be learned for other heavily populated arid river basins?

A second objective is the development of a regional rehabilitation strategy. The National Research Council (1992) has recommended a national strategy for restoration of wetlands, rivers, streams and lakes. NRC states that a national strategy must be based on rehabilitation plans for each eco-region. Several recent initiatives make watershed-based planning a realistic priority for the study region. In 1997 Texas passed a new water law which mandates regional water planning and allows for joint planning with adjacent states and countries (TWDB 1998). Mexico is decentralizing its water management by organizing river basin advisory councils (Garduño1995). New Mexico and Texas, instead of suing each other, have created a joint planning commission. The project will contribute to these efforts by working with residents of the region to develop a rehabilitation action agenda that will be submitted to agencies and communities in Mexico and the United States.

 

  1. Study Region
  2. The study region is the stretch of the Rio Grande/Río Bravo sub-basin from Elephant Butte, New Mexico to Fort Quitman, Texas. This is also the planning region for the Bureau of Reclamation and the Rio Grande Project (the water structure in the Texas-New Mexico region). Over half of this 260-mile stretch of river forms the border between Mexico and the United States. The region includes Doña Ana County and part of Sierra County in New Mexico, El Paso and Hudspeth counties in Texas and parts of the state of Chihuahua in Mexico. The largest population centers are the El Paso-Juárez metroplex (EPJUAR) with over 2 million people and Las Cruces, NM with a population of 120,000. The following vulnerabilities characterize the region:

    Growth. The twin cities of El Paso and Ciudad Juárez are the fastest growing metropolitan region in the entire Rio Grande Basin from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico. The median age in EPJUAR is only 28 years. Population growth rates in EPJUAR currently average 3.3 percent per annum (U.S. Dept. of Commerce 1992). El Paso County’s population, which currently stands over 600,000, is expected to cross one million shortly after 2010 (TWDB 1997a). Juárez, with a population of over 1.2 million, will grow to over 2.25 million in the same period. By 2010, there will be over 3.4 million residents in EPJUAR. Doña Ana County in New Mexico is much smaller, with a total population of slightly over 200,000. Economic and job growth is keeping pace with population expansion. Job growth in El Paso currently averages over 3 percent per annum, and in EPJUAR as a whole, job growth exceeds 5 percent per annum (DRI/McGraw-Hill 1994).

    Poverty. Despite strong economic growth, first from the maquiladora program (see below) and now as a result of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), EPJUAR remains poor. Per capita income in EPJUAR amounts to just over U.S. $6,800, compared to $12,904 in the State of Texas as a whole and $14,420 in the United States (U.S. Dept. of Commerce 1992; Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts 1994). 22 percent of the El Paso population is below the poverty level (Schmandt 1993). The EPJUAR is home to may colonias – unincorporated settlements with no or poor water infrastructure – that have severe ecological impacts (Holtz 1993). 122 colonias with 48,000 people were identified in El Paso County (TWDB 1991).

    Border Industrial Development. The maquiladora industry is the fastest growing sector of the Mexican economy (Weintraub and Boske 1992.). There are over 3,500 maquiladoras in Mexico, and of these about 635 are located in the Rio Grande Basin on the Texas-Mexico border. Juárez is a major center of maquiladora activity. Under the maquila system, a foreign (usually U.S.-based) parent company sends raw materials to Mexico to produce finished goods which are exported back to the country of origin as finished products. The 1983 U.S.-Mexico La Paz agreement authorized the return of the wastes produced by the industry to the country of origin. It is widely suspected and occasionally documented that maquiladoras illegally dump hazardous waste into the Rio Grande (TNRCC 1994). Under NAFTA rules, to take effect in 1999, wastes can remain in Mexico. The closest Mexican disposal site for Juárez is some 1,000 km. away.

    Water Scarcity and Water Insecurity. EPJUAR relies primarily on the Hueco Bolson aquifer for potable water. Because the region is arid, recharge rates of the aquifers in the region are very low (TWC 1988). At the same time, rapid growth in the region is rapidly exhausting the aquifer. Pumping from the Hueco Bolson has increased 6-fold since the 1960s; Juárez has increased its take by 12.5 percent between 1990 and 1994 (TWDB 1997b). At current rates of withdrawal the Hueco Bolson will run out of potable water by 2030 (Eaton & Hurlbut 1992, TWDB 1997b). Already, salinity and pumping problems are evident (ibid.). The much smaller Mesilla Bolson is the primary water source for Doña Ana County, including the city of Las Cruces. El Paso County sued for the right to drill wells in the Mesilla Bolson and to pump that water over the New Mexico State line. This ten-year-old lawsuit was only recently settled with the establishment of the New Mexico-Texas Water Commission. Ciudad Juárez plans to begin pumping from the Mesilla Bolson within three years. The Rio Grande Alluvium is an additional source of shallow ground water for supplemental irrigation when the surface flow in the Rio Grande is not sufficient to meet total agricultural water needs (TWC 1991).

    Rio Grande water is stored in Elephant Butte Reservoir, located 100 miles North of El Paso in New Mexico. Releases from Elephant Butte are the only source of surface water in EPJUAR (IBWC 1992). These waters are shared under a 1906 treaty between Mexico and the United States. New Mexico and Texas use their share primarily for agriculture. This is beginning to change as El Paso weans itself from declining groundwater resources. As part of this strategy, El Paso is purchasing agricultural land for the accompanying water rights, which are then transferred to municipal and industrial uses. In Mexico, all Rio Grande water is allocated to agriculture. Even if Juárez were to shift all of its river water to municipal use current needs would be met for half of the year only. In contrast to the Lower Rio Grande water rights in the Texas portion of the study region are still under re-adjudication.

    Water rights holders in Southern New Mexico resist conversion of water from agricultural use to El Paso (Bath 1993). 90,000 receive irrigation waters from the powerful Elephant Butte Irrigation District. In contrast, the El Paso County Water Improvement District No.1 holds water rights to 70,000 acres, but farming has declined to 40,000 acres with an increasing share being used for urban purposes. Mexican farmers receive 60,000 acre-feet of Rio Grande water plus municipal wastewater discharges (Archuleta 1991). Competition between rural and urban water demand will increase in the future.

    Water Quality. Rio Grande waters are contaminated above the El Paso-Juárez metroplex. Contaminants include dissolved solids, fecal coliforms, sulphates and chlorides caused by irrigation return flow and municipal discharges. The quality of the Rio Grande waters deteriorates along the EPJUAR corridor and further downstream. Water quality is particularly poor immediately downstream of El Paso (TNRCC 1996). Sewage treatment is inadequate on both sides of the border (EPA 1992). Thirty-two percent of all samples of water taken from the El Paso-Juárez region of the Rio Grande violate Texas standards for fecal coliform bacteria (Eaton and Hurlbut 1992). In addition to municipal waste and agricultural run-off, industrial effluents are also a significant factor in water quality deterioration. Hazardous materials used by maquiladoras include a wide range of solvents (alcohols, freons, ketones, and aromatic hydrocarbons), acids and alkaline substances, and heavy metals. Although it is widely believed the maquiladoras generate significant levels of toxic wastes, there is little data on how these wastes are actually dispersed (TWC 1992). Water quality in the area also suffers from increasing levels of salinity.

    The aquifers too are being polluted. Agricultural activity and high-density residential septic tanks are polluting the Mesilla Bolson. The Rio Grande aquifer is also highly susceptible to contamination by land application of fertilizers and pesticides, by leaching from septic tanks and feedlots, and by infiltration of chemicals or hazardous waste from storage facilities. The Hueco Bolson is moderately susceptible to contamination. In the Ciudad Juárez area, residential water supplies were found to be contaminated with fecal coliform bacteria, indicating that the ground water beneath the city was contaminated by sewage (TWDB 1997b).

    Degradation of the Ecosystem. In their natural state, riparian ecosystems in the arid Southwest are wooded or shrubby areas lining the waterways with characteristic vegetation that is dependent on the existence of perennial, ephemeral, or intermittent surface and/or subsurface drainage (Arizona Riparian Council 1996). Despite the relatively small land area occupied by riparian ecosystems in the desert Southwest, such areas have greater numbers of wildlife and greater diversity of species per acre than other habitat types. An estimated 80% of vertebrate species depend on these ecosystems for some part of their life cycle. In addition to providing habitat for animals and plants, riparian ecosystems act as filters for non-point source pollutants and also help prevent erosion.

    Historically the vegetation of region’s riparian ecosystems region has consisted of cottonwood trees, black willow, and screwbean mesquite. Introduced species of salt cedar (Tamarix chinensis or T. pentandra) have displaced native vegetation and now choke much of the riparian zone throughout the region. Extensive agricultural development of the valley floor in southern New Mexico through the valley below El Paso has modified habitats and affected water quality. The discharge of raw sewage from Ciudad Juárez at a point below El Paso affects water quality. Agricultural and urban consumptive use of river water above Fort Quitman renders the channel dry below this point most of the year.

    Physical modifications to the channel have been extensive in EPJUAR. Canals to provide Mexican and US agriculture with Rio Grande water, and the diversion of flow into concrete-lined channels have altered the physical and biological nature of the river course dramatically. From Caballo Dam to Elephant Butte and further southward, the river has been canalized and managed solely as a delivery system for irrigation water. As a result, riparian ecosystems lying along ox-bows of the river have been cut off from the mainstem flow, and there is insufficient water to support the stranded vegetation. Other areas are affected by the change in the springtime flooding regime of the river, which is important for the establishment and maintenance of cottonwoods and willows. The reduced volume of water flow has contributed to a build-up of salts in the soil lining the river which inhibits the growth of any remaining native vegetation but which poses no threat to salt cedar. Along many sections of the Rio Grande, all types of vegetation (native and exotic) have been removed for urban expansion, flood control, and/or border security reasons.

    The impacts on vegetation (reduction in acreage, invasion by exotic species, changes in flooding regime and/or flow rate) affect the animals too. As the total acreage occupied by riparian vegetation dwindles, food and nesting sites for animals dwindle, reducing the population sizes of the animals. As the native trees and shrubs are displaced by exotic species like salt cedar, the variety of habitats available for the animals is reduced resulting in a decrease in the variety of animals. When the availability of water is drastically reduced the animal species most dependent on water will be eliminated, especially amphibians, waterfowl, and aquatic mammals like muskrats.

    Multi-Jurisdictional Governance. The study area is home to different cultures, laws and economies. Political, legal, and social institutions differ significantly across both international and interstate borders. Management of Rio Grande waters is divided between an international commission (with American and Mexican sections), a US Federal agency, and the states of New Mexico and Texas. Groundwater is property of the landowner in Texas, subject to the rule of prior appropriation in New Mexico, and federal property in Mexico. No joint rules or institutions exist for the management of groundwater. Multiple irrigation districts and municipal water providers, and an interstate compact dividing Rio Grande waters between Texas and New Mexico add further jurisdictional complexity.

  3. Approach and Methodologies

To accomplish the stated objectives, the project will use a "civic science" approach that links two carefully synchronized project components: Integrated Assessment (IA) by an interdisciplinary team of experts, and Policy Advice (PA) from residents of the region. Both activities are conducted in parallel, with multiple interactions between them. Over the course of the last decade members of the project team have successfully developed this methodology in various places and environments: (1) Sustainable Development Planning for the Semi-Arid Brazilian Northeast--Project ARIDAS, funded by the World Bank (Magalhaes and Schmandt in print; McKaughan 1997; Projeto Áridas 1995); (2) Integrated Assessment of Water and Development in the Lower Rio Grande (in progress), funded by EPA/NSF and NOAA (Schmandt 1998; Schmandt, Stolp and Ward 1998), also see section "Results from Prior Federal Support"), (3) Environmental Risk Assessment for the Houston Metroplex, funded by Houston Endowment and EPA (Houston Environmental Foresight Committee 1996; Delhagen and Dea 1996; Wilson et al.1996; Wilson et. al. In print), (4) creation of a binational environmental organization for the restoration of the Rio Grande basin—Rio Grande/Río Bravo Coalition (funded by the Ford Foundation and NSF (Houston Advanced Research Center 1994, Magalhães and Schmandt in print).

Civic science is built on two premises: (1) complex regional development issues require careful interdisciplinary assessment of current conditions and future development options, and (2) action preferences and goals need to be articulated by knowledgeable stakeholders from the region. Assessment and advice require and legitimize each other—assessment defines possible actions, advice recommends a plan for action. In this project an integrated scientific assessment will be prepared to examine options for rehabilitation. Stakeholder advice will be sought to develop a plan for action. Assessment and advice will be placed within the broader context of regional water issues and growth patterns. Drawing on lessons learned from earlier projects we shall further develop the methodology for civic science projects by convening a binational stakeholder task force and establishing more formal coordination of scientific and stakeholder activities. The following table identifies the project components.

Integrated Assessment (IA)

Policy Advice (PA)

IA 1 Benchmark Report PA 1 Review Current Rehabilitation Projects/Plans
IA 2 Water: Now and 2040 PA 2 Pre-Test of Policy Delphi Instrument
IA 3 Index of Biological Integrity PA 3 Guidance to IA team on Options Analysis
IA 4 Delphi of Community Views and Preferences PA 4 Policy Report to Community
IA 5 Options for Rehabilitation PA 5 Policy Dialogue
IA 6 Scientific Report to Task Force  

Dissemination of Findings (DF)

DF 1 Workshop on Rehabilitation in Arid Regions

Integrated Assessment (IA)

An integrated scientific assessment will be conducted by a binational multidisciplinary team of experts on issues pertaining to (1) the environment and ecosystem rehabilitation, (2) water supply, demand, quality and management, (3) population growth, economy and social conditions. The following tasks will be performed:

IA 1 Benchmark Report. This report, to be completed within six months, will integrate existing data from Mexico and the United States on current conditions in the study region. The following topics will be included: water supply (ground and surface water), water quality, water management, water demand by agriculture, cities and industry, population, environment, social conditions, and economic activities. Based on experience gained with our previous project in the Lower Rio Grande development of comparable data sets from Mexico and the United States is difficult and best accomplished by a binational team whose members are trusted by agencies in their respective countries.

IA 2 Water: Now and 2040. This task involves detailed analysis of water supply and demand, water quality, and water management. A water budget will be developed using the following steps: (1) compilation of digital files of climatological and streamflow data, (2) compilation of aquifer withdrawals and estimated reserves, (3) comparison of supply and demand with the help of BRACERO—a hydrological model developed to assess water issues specifically along the Rio Grande. (4) determination of firm yield of the Elephant Butte reservoir and of area aquifers, (5) projection of water supply and demand to the year 2040 using different growth scenarios. Details of the water modeling task are as follows:

BRACERO is designed to assess a riverine system controlled by reservoir operation. It is presently implemented in both a spreadsheet format and a DOS-based executable (source code BASIC). The model was originally developed to support the water supply analyses on the EPA/NSF Binational Project on the Lower Rio Grande Valley, but the model can be easily implemented on other hydrological systems. The model is based upon a water budget of the riverine system subdivided into finite segments. The most important such segments are main-stem reservoirs, and the simplest model configuration segments the river system into a network of reservoirs and feeding river reaches. The model is presently formulated to use a one-month time resolution and is driven by inputs of inflow and dam operations. Inflows are developed from actual gauge records on the rivers, but could be provided as well by synthetic hydrological analyses. The model formulation includes capability to implement operational "rules" for each reservoir dam. On the Lower Rio Grande, rules were designed to model the historical tandem operation of the international reservoirs, Amistad and Falcon.

Specific inputs to the model include (1) inflow from tributaries and peripheral channels draining into the segment, (2) specification of area-volume relation and pool allotment for reservoirs, (3) leakage out of the river segment through infiltration, (4) inflow due to precipitation directly on the water surface, (5) outflow due to evaporation from the water surface, and (6) inflow and outflow via subsurface conduits, such as springs. For reservoir segments in the model, computations are made of outflow from reservoir (dam releases, leakage and springflow) and water surface elevation, hence volume.

The value of the model is to provide a quantitative framework for the exploration of alternative socio-economic scenarios coupled with candidate policy or water-management strategies. For example, the model would enable the user to calculate monthly water demands needed under various scenarios of socio-economic development, and then determine the surface and ground water stresses that result from attempting to meet water demands. Monthly rather than annual resolution is important because stream flow as well as water demands in the Rio Grande/Bravo changes dramatically during the course of the year. The model can also be used to estimate water shortfalls for specific subregions of the basin and to determine firm yield as an index to water availability.

BRACERO will be linked to companion water quality models that require river flow as an input. We shall use QUAL-TX (based on the standard EPA water quality model), a one-dimensional equilibrium water-quality model, that computes a profile of water quality indicators with longitudinal position along the river. This model includes contaminant loading capability, and determines instream concentrations subject to advection and dispersion, and kinetic processes specific to the water-quality indicator of concern. So long as the loads and kinetics can be specified, QUAL-TX affords a capability to model virtually any transported water-quality indicators, including those, such as TDS, nutrients and dissolved oxygen, that establish the viability of riverine habitat for various species. In Combination with task IA3 (below) the water modeling will be extended to interface with ecological indicators.

Analysis of water management issues and institutions will include: binational and interstate water treaties and agreements, water planning, role of federal and states water agencies in Mexico, New Mexico and Texas, irrigation districts and municipal water offices (UTEP 1991, Schmandt 1993). [Note: This task is funded separately. It will be performed by a team of three faculty members and fifteen graduate students from the Lyndon Baines Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin at no cost to the project.] The Public Policy Research Center at the University of Texas – El Paso closely monitors water policy in the two nations and three states of the study region.

IA 3 Index of Biological Integrity. An index of biological integrity (IBI) for the riparian and instream environment for this ecologically fragile region will be developed, tested and used to asses ecological conditions. Such an index is an important tool for evaluating and redirecting management programs toward restoring and maintaining "the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the nation’s waters." Development of a region-specific IBI involves three steps: (1) Identify reliable and meaningful response variables through testing; (2) measure and evaluate the system against expectations; (3) interpret measured values in terms of an overall assessment of system conditions (Karr and Chu 1998). To our knowledge, no such index has yet been developed for the study area.

Hydrologic change is one of the main stressors to riparian ecosystems in the study area. Given the key importance of flow regimes in structuring riparian plant communities (Poff et al. 1997), the IBI will be focused on biohydrological relationships. The index will be calculated for Rio Grande reaches with different hydrologic conditions, and will reflect measurements taken across hierarchical levels as described below:

(1) Relative abundance of community types in the floodplain, including indicator community types. In many riparian ecosystems, hydric community types have been replaced by more mesic types. For example, native cottonwood (Populus) forests have been widely replaced by community types dominated by more drought-tolerant exotic species, notably saltcedar (Tamarix) woodlands. Techniques will involve mapping the abundance of community types along transect lines establishment in the study reaches, and sampling plots within each community type for structure of woody and herbaceous vegetation. Community types will be weighted according to their position along moisture gradients (e.g., from 'wet' riverine marshland to 'drier' Prosopis woodlands); and according to dominance by native vs. exotic species.

(2) Species composition and diversity. Plant species in riparian zones are distributed along gradients of moisture availability. Weighted-average wetland indicator scores that reflect the relative abundant of plants in various wetland indicator classes will be calculated from the plot-based species composition data (Stromberg et al. 1996). Species diversity and richness also will be assessed, as will relative abundance of native vs. exotic plant species.

(3) Productivity and age structure diversity of populations of indicator species (e.g. cottonwood). Productivity of riparian tree species is strongly controlled by water availability. Dendrochronological data will be collected on branch growth rate as an index of bioproductivity (Willms 1998). Establishment of riparian cottonwood species is controlled largely by flood pulses and groundwater depth and decline rate (Braate et al. 1997). Age structure diversity will be determined by collecting increment cores from samples of trees in all observable size classes, and using standard dendrochronologial techniques to determine stand age.

The IBI and its component variables will be assessed in relation to existing hydrologic data for the study reaches, including flow data obtained from long-term stream gages and groundwater data obtained from monitoring wells. If necessary, a hydrologic monitoring network will be established in association with the vegetation plot sampling.

IA 4 Policy Delphi. A Policy Delphi Survey will be the primary methodology for evaluating stakeholder views and preferences regarding rehabilitation. Delphi is a technique for structured communications in a situation where opinions, rather than quantifiable data, are surveyed. Through an iterative process respondents’ replies are sharpened and focused, thus becoming more meaningful than one-time survey results. The method was first developed by a group of physicists and philosophers at the Rand Corporation where Helmer and Rescher (1960) developed its philosophical base. The original Delphi method has been widely used for technological forecasting purposes (Turoff 1975; Miller and Cuff 1986; and Needham 1990). The original Delphi methodology sought consensus among experts. The Policy Delphi addresses itself to informed stakeholders to identify, document, and rank their views on a major policy issue. The Policy Delphi methodology was successfully applied to issues of environment and development in semi-arid regions (Magalhães 1994, McKaughan 1997).

Members of the IA team will conduct the Delphi. Participants of the Policy Delphi will include water managers and users, elected state, county, and city representatives, individuals responsible for economic development, corporate leaders, and members of non-governmental organizations. The Delphi will include approximately fifty participants each in Mexico and in Texas-New Mexico. Rounds One and Two will be administered separately in Mexico and the US to enable an analysis of cross-border similarities or differences. The Policy Delphi involves the following steps:

  1. Design: A starting list of issues and problems are identified, as well as illustrative policy options, incorporating results from IA 1, PA 1, and PA 2. Background information on the context of this Delphi inquiry is provided (IA1-3)
  2. Pre-Test: Members of the Rehabilitation Task Force will participate in a pre-test of the first survey instrument (see PA 3).
  3. Participant selection: A team of participants is carefully selected, with diversity (geographic, gender, ethnic, economic, social) a primary goal.
  4. Round One: The first round questionnaire presents the issues, outlines existing policies and invites people to comment about their views regarding rehabilitation and water management. Written responses are carefully summarized by the design team.
  5. Round Two: In the second round, participants receive a summary of Round One results as well as a reminder of their original input. They are now asked to rank their responses on four scales: importance, desirability, feasibility, and confidence. The design team rearranges the responses according to the votes received, taking great care in identifying both the range of consensus and the areas of conflicting views.
  6. Round Three: The results from the two national surveys are combined and submitted to the entire sample from Mexico and the United States for final comments and ranking of priorities.
  7. Results: Analysis of results, report to the task force, and publication of results. Advice on how to incorporate results in Policy Report by the Task Force.

IA 5 Options for Rehabilitation. This task will use the information and results from prior research tasks (IA 1-4) and input from the Rehabilitation Task Force (PA 1 and 2) to examine the technical, economic and social feasibility of selected projects. This will be accomplished by using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. MCDA thus serves as an integrative tool, through which the large amounts of data and information generated on the ecosystem, water, and socio-economics will be channeled. This analysis will be performed by the project’s economists, ecologists, and water researchers, with close guidance from the Rehabilitation Task Force (PA 3).

To rationally compare rehabilitation options, the social, economic and environmental impacts of alternative options must be assessed. Multi-criteria decision analysis provides techniques for assessing the trade-offs and impacts each project option implies. MCDA is especially effective cases instances involving environmental concerns, where traditional methods such as cost-benefit analysis have difficulty capturing the value of environmental amenities. Standard impact assessments are also unsatisfactory because they do not offer a structure within which the multiplicity of impacts can be weighed. In addition MCDA is well suited to the large amounts of information gathered in an IA, and formulating this information into a decision-making aid for comparing alternatives, rather than a simple list of impacts and mitigatory measures. MCDA has been recently used for water resource planning, forestry, agriculture, and energy (Romero and Rehman, 1987; Gregory et al., 1992; Munasinghe, 1993; Keeny et al., 1987; Hamalainen and Karjalainen, 1995).

IA 6 Scientific Report to the Task Force. This report will summarize the results of the previous tasks and will be transmitted to the Task Force by the end of year two. The report will address the following topics: Characterization of the hydro-biology of the region; proposed IBI for the region and recommendations for using the IBI as a monitoring and management tool; technical feasibility and expected environmental benefits from proposed rehabilitation projects. The report, to be written in non-technical language, will be drafted and reviewed by all members of the IA. Comments will also be solicited from outside reviewers. Working papers resulting from the IA will be appended as technical reference documents.

 

Policy Advice (PA)

A Rehabilitation Task Force will be assembled. This approach is responsive to several recommendations about development planning in the study region. The joint U.S.-Mexican Border XXI Plan calls for community participation in developing new strategies for managing scarce water (US EPA 1996). Guidelines issued by the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission (BECC) (an international organization created under NAFTA) require community advice prior to BECC endorsement of project proposals. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) has organized a binational advisory group on air pollution in the El Paso/Juárez airshed that is rapidly becoming the focal point for recommendations to the national governments, states and communities (Emerson et al. In print).

Carlos Rincón (Mexico), Task force chair Environmental Defense Fund
Doug Echlin IBWC Environmental Staff Member
David Allen U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, El Paso
Kevin Bixby Southwest Environmental Center
John Sproul El Paso/Trans Pecos Audubon Society
Tom Bahr New Mexico Water Resources Institute
Brian Hanson U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Albuquerque
René Franco (Mexico) Border Environmental Cooperation Commission
Francisco Treviño (Mexico) Río Grande/RioBravo Coalition
Steve Harris Rio Grande Restoration, El Prado, NM
Carol Purchase Big Bend National Park
Scott Storment Rio Grande Alliance, TNRCC
Representatives of Mexican and US irrigation districts  
Conrad Keyes Rio Grande Compact Commission
Nancy Lowery, Regional project manager UTEP

The rehabilitation task force will be made up of a) working level staff from water and environmental agencies, b) local governments, c) irrigation districts, and d) non-governmental organizations. Members will come from Mexico, New Mexico and Texas. Task Force meetings will be open, but membership will be limited to 25. The above list illustrates the membership of the task force (additional members will be added).

Task force members will be appointed in one of several ways. The American and Mexican Commissioners of the International Boundary and Water Commission—the international agency responsible for management of the Rio Grande from Elephant Butte to Fort Quitman—would appoint an equal number of Mexican and U.S. members. A second option is to invite the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission to convene the task force. Another approach is to have the task force convened by the regional water planning committee which has recently been established under provisions of Texas water legislation passed in 1997 (Senate Bill 1). This committee is responsible for developing a regional water plan for the U.S. part of the study region. The committee has voting members from El Paso and Hudspeth counties in Texas and will invite associate members from Doña Ana County in New Mexico and Juárez in New Mexico. Or, the Rio Grande/Río Bravo Coalition can be the convenor. The coalition is a binational citizens group dedicated to improvements throughout the river basin. Its headquarters are in El Paso. A decision on how to proceed will be taken after careful evaluation of these options.

The task force will perform the following tasks:

PA 1 Review of Current Rehabilitation Projects and Plans

Members of the task force will prepare an inventory of existing restoration projects and plans in the region (see above, Strategies for Improvement). Relevant Mexican and US agencies will be queried about their plans. A literature search of rehabilitation projects in arid and semi-arid regions will be performed. The Task Force, throughout its three-year lifetime, will solicit presentations and other information on specific restoration projects.

PA 2 Pre-Test of Policy Delphi Instrument. Task Force members will pre-test the Policy Delphi survey instrument and advise on improvements before the survey is administered. They will also review the list of survey participants.

PA 3 Guidance to the IA team. Task force members, after detailed discussion and consultation with relevant agencies, will provide policy guidance to the IA team on what they consider to be possible rehabilitation sites and projects. This will help the IA team to focus its analysis of options for rehabilitation (Task IA 5) on a limited number of concrete possibilities.

PA 4 Draft an Regional Rehabilitation Action Agenda. After the IA team completes its Scientific Report (IA 6), the report will be evaluated by the Rehabilitation Task Force. The Task Force, using its judgement about political and economic realities as well as the results of the Policy Delphi, may agree with the science report or draw different conclusions about feasible projects and the timeframe for their implementation. These differences will be explained in the policy report prepared by the Task Force. This Regional Rehabilitation Action Agenda will be in two parts: (i) a ranked list of technically, economically and socially acceptable rehabilitation measures in the study region, and (ii) recommendations on best ways to implement rehabilitation projects in the multi-jurisdictional study region. The Rehabilitation Action Agenda will be published and widely distributed to interested parties in the region.

PA 5 Policy Dialogue

In addition to the above specific tasks, the Rehabilitation Task Force will conduct a continuing policy dialogue on rehabilitation and water management. It will provide general guidance to the IA throughout the length of the project. The Rehabilitation Task Force and the IA will meet at regular intervals to exchange information and provide updates, exchange vital feedback, discuss and evaluate progress, and determine next steps. We shall arrange for some overlap in membership between the IA team and the Task Force in order to facilitate coordination between the two groups.

 

Dissemination of findings (DF)

DF 1 International Workshop on Rehabilitation of Arid and Semi-arid River Basins. A final workshop will be convened to report to a wider regional audience on scientific findings (IA 6), the rehabilitation action agenda (IA 4), and comments and experience from other arid and semi-arid regions. Up to five experienced authors or agencies with experience with rehabilitation from outside the study region will be invited.

 

  1. Expected Results and Benefits
  2. This project will greatly increase the understanding of the technical, economic and social options for rehabilitation of the riparian ecosystem in the El Paso/Juárez region. If successful, rehabilitation will become an important strategy for water managers in the region. Furthermore, this specific project should advance understanding of the technical and social components of restoration in multi-jurisdictional, water-scarce regions. Finally, the project will refine processes for integrating multi-disciplinary research with stakeholder input.

  3. Results From Prior Federal Support*

Project title: Water and Sustainable Development in the Binational Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin Funding source: EPA/NSF STAR Partnership for Environmental Research Program, Water and Watersheds

Date of award: September 27, 1995

Project Period: January 1996 to December 1998

In January 1996, the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) and the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) initiated a collaborative, two-and-a-half-year integrated environmental assessment of the binational watershed near the mouth of the Rio Grande/Río Bravo . This project is part of HARC’s ongoing Semi-Arid Regions Program, established in 1990. The project’s main objectives are to:

(1) develop reliable watershed-based data sets from both Mexican and U.S. sources in order to analyze the binational region as an integrated whole,

(2) analyze water resource issues as critical factors in the region’s long run planning and sustainable development, and

(3) engage researchers, policy-makers, and the civic community to develop possible actions that can be taken to achieve sustainable development in this rapidly growing, drought-prone, environmentally fragile watershed.

The project unites critical information on water, socio-economics, and ecology in an approach that will assist water managers and policy decision-makers to plan for sustainable management of the binational watershed. Mexican and U.S. researchers are paired in teams to analyze critical issue regarding: (1) water supply and demand, (2) water quality, (3) population, (4) socio-economic conditions, (5) ecology, (6) water management and institutions, and (7) geographic information systems (GIS). The teams have produced an integrated "baseline report" of current conditions in the region, which provided the basis for subsequent analysis of alternative future scenarios 2030. Future scenarios were developed by combining regional baseline trends and demographic projections with alternatives for future water availability, irrigation technologies, and management practices.

The project’s GIS has been extensively use to integrate the US and Mexican data from the baseline reports and to develop working GIS data sets. Mexican team members have succeeded in overcoming great obstacles to acquiring data from Mexico. Much of the Mexican data, which originally existed only in undigitized formats, has been digitized. The GIS data base now includes the following information for both sides of the border: recent (late 1996) Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery for the primary model study area, (2) hydrography, including irrigation infrastructure, (3) transportation, (4) topography, (5) climate (isolines for temperature and precipitation), (6) political units, attributed with demographic and economic data, (7) water quality measurement and stream gauging stations, including pumps, including parameter time series (8) irrigation district boundaries, and (9) ecological indicator layers (fish sampling sites and river segments attributed by species present for 4 different time periods and a newly developed index). Work by the GIS team generated data that were integral to the modeling carried out by other teams during the baseline and scenario analyses.

.

Project Results. In the course of the project so far, the following have been achieved:

  1. Elaboration and refinement of the Civic Science approach
  2. Refinement of the Integrated Scientific Assessment methodology
  3. Refinement of the Scenario Analysis Methodology
  4. Development of the BRACERO hydrological model
  5. Exploration and development of methods for linking BRACERO with the QUALTEX water quality model
  6. Development of GIS-based techniques for data integration
  7. Development of high levels of "Institutional Capital" between US an Mexican researchers and institutions, and between these and the local community
  8. Specific Findings
  1. Population will double by the year 2030, while surface water supply will stay at current levels or decrease.
  2. The current drought in the upstream parts of the watershed began in 1994 and continues unabated. Mexican farmers lost two harvests and several irrigation districts in Texas went dry in 1996.
  3. Rapid growth and development in the San Juan and Conchos River basins in Mexico could significantly reduce the amount of water these two tributaries contribute to the mainstem of the Lower Rio Grande/Bravo.
  4. The adequacy of the existing water supply system under drought conditions is being tested for the first time. During the drought of record in the 1950s only 500,000 people lived in the same area where 2 million live today. Amistad reservoir did not yet exist, and Falcon reservoir came on line in the middle of the drought.
  5. In general, the water quality data for the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo showed uniformity for most of the parameters; however, at Anzaldúas Dam in Mexico during the years 1982 to 1984 substantially higher values were found for almost all the parameters. This rise may be related to dramatically reduced flows at the time. Conductivity values-- an indicator of salinity-- were high enough at the time to indicate that the water should not be used for irrigation in soils with poor drainage.
  6. While "hot spots" of chemical pollution exists, particularly down steam from major urban areas along the river, the greatest overall threats to river water quality are increasing salinity and fecal coliforms.
  7. Significant changes in fauna appear to be correlated with decreasing streamflows, the proliferation of exotic species, pollution, and increased salinity. An additional possible factor is an increase in the temperature of the water in the river.
  8. GIS analysis indicates that irrigated land area in the basin is significantly larger than official records indicate.
  9. Runs of the agricultural model suggest that significant long-term reductions in water supply would likely have a small overall impact on the regional economy because new irrigation technology and cropping patterns would be adopted.
  10. Transfers of agricultural water to municipal use occur in Texas through an existing water market and joint infrastructure improvements on the part of cities and irrigation districts.
  11. The system is flexible - small increases in irrigation efficiency can release significant amounts of water for other uses.
  12. Tremendous opportunity exists for "win-win" arrangements in which municipal water suppliers agree to finance improvement in irrigation efficiency in return for the rights to the water saved.
  13. While opportunities exist to achieve greater efficiency of water use, the water saved will be allocated to human uses, leaving the ecosystem in continued decline.

The project has spawned the following publications and working papers, some of which will available on the project web site (http://voyager.eisl.harc.edu/rio/index.html) May 1, 1998.

Schmandt, J., C. Stolp and G. Ward, Scarce Water: Doing More with Less in the Lower Rio Grande. US-Mexican Policy Report No. 8 (Austin, Tx.: Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, 1998).

Mathis, M. "Using New Approaches to Environmental Decision-Making: Water and Development in the Binational Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin." HARC/CGS Working Paper to be presented at the NCEDR National Conference on Environmental Decision Making, May 3-6, 1998.

Ward, G. "Hydrological Scenarios in the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin." HARC/CGS Working Paper Series, 1998.

Ward, G. "Hydrological Analysis of the International Reservoir Operation on the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo." HARC/CGS Working Paper Series, 1997.

Navar, J. "Surface Water Supply and Demand in the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin." HARC/CGS Working Paper Series, 1998.

Vogel, E., N. Armstrong and L. Chapa. "Water Quality in the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo." HARC/CGS Working Paper Series, 1998.

Edwards, R. and S. Contreras-Balderas. "Ecological Conditions in the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin." HARC/CGS Working Paper Series, 1997.

Contreras-Balderas, S., R. Edwards, M. Lozano-Vilano and M. Garcia-Ramírez. "Integrated Environmental Assessment of the Binational Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin." HARC/CGS Working Paper, 1998.

Hazelton, J. and I. Aguilar-Barajas. "Demographic Trends in the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin." HARC/CGS Working Paper Series, 1997.

Hazelton, J. and I. Aguilar-Barajas. "Socio-Economic Profile and Trends in the Lower Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin." HARC/CGS Working Paper Series, 1998.

 

  1. General Project Information
  2. HARC is a consortium of research universities including The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M University, University of Houston, Rice University, Duke University, the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM), and Louisiana State University. One of HARC’s primary missions is to pool talent from member universities to more effectively conduct research on complex policy issues.

    Personnel

    The research tasks will be carried out by five teams constituted by Mexican and American researcher with appropriate expertise:

    Team Team Member
    Ecology: Bill Mackay (UTEP), Juliet Stromberg (ASU), Sue Watts (UTEP),

    Gerardo Ceballos (UNAM)

    Water: George Ward (UT-Austin), Neal Armstrong (UT-Austin), Jesus Navar (UANL), Jurgen Schmandt (UT/HARC) Socio-Economics: Denis Soden (UTEP), Ismael Aguilar (ITESM) Stakeholder Processes: Chandler Stolp (UT-Austin), Nancy Lowery (UTEP) Integration: Chip Groat (UTEP), Ismael Aguilar (ITESM), Jurgen Schmandt (UT/HARC), Mitchell Mathis (HARC), one person each from the other teams, Carlos Rincón (Rehabilitation Task Force Chair)

    The Integration Team will meet regularly throughout the duration of the project to review progress, exchange information and data from each of the research teams and the Rehabilitation Task Force, provide feedback, and establish next steps. The principal investigators (Aguilar, Groat and Schmandt) will exercise management oversight.

     

    Project Timeline

    The project is organized into three Phases. Phase 1 of the project establishes an integrated benchmark report that characterizes basic trends in, and interrelationships among, (1) ecosystem integrity, (2) water quantity, quality and management, (3) and social and economic conditions. A Policy Delphi Survey of a sample of residents in Mexico, Texas, and New Mexico is conducted to solicit their priorities and goals of rehabilitation and water management. A region-specific Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) is developed. A Task Force on Rehabilitation is convened. Phase 2 will determine technically, economically, and socially feasible options for rehabilitation and assess the consequences of these options. A Final Scientific Report summarizing research findings will be completed and presented to the Rehabilitation Task Force. Phase 3 initiates the evaluation of the restoration options. A rehabilitation action agenda will be developed, and the project will conclude with the dissemination of findings at a workshop on riparian rehabilitation in arid regions.

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