2004 Election Focus
Policy experts
forecast key issues

What will ultimately surface as the key issue in this year’s presidential election? Personal economics, the war in Iraq and national security are all frontrunners according to members of the LBJ School faculty. Perhaps more intriguing are our policy experts’ views about how volatility, fear and an intense polarization of the electorate have created an emotionally charged political climate, setting 2004 apart from past elections.
 

Elspeth Rostow
A policy historian with expertise in the American presidency, U.S. foreign relations and U.S. presidential elections.

“U.S presidential elections have a habit of confounding prophets. Nonetheless, the upcoming brouhaha could follow one of two Conventional Wisdom scenarios. (A) If the economy continues to be generally describable as "rebounding" (even without significant job recovery), pocketbook issues will be a driving force in November (B) If Iraq looks more and more like a quagmire with a possible reprise of 9/11 at home, the handling of foreign/military policy will grab center stage. But my money is on a surprise . . . and not just in October. Volatility, in an unusually polarized country, should make the next nine months an election season for the history books.”

Max Sherman
A former Texas State Senator with expertise in intergovernmental relations, ethics in public affairs and U.S. elections.

“Jobs, jobs, jobs, or the lack thereof. If the several million people who have lost jobs during this administration find jobs or feel comfortable that a job will be found fairly soon, the administration probably will weather the election attacks. If not and if those unemployed are energized, these folks could make a difference for Democrats.”

Edwin Dorn, Dean
A former Undersecretary of Defense with expertise in campaign strategy, civil rights, national security and the military.

“Well, no matter what President Bush said in the SOTU, it won't be steroids and gay marriages! If Bush is smart, he'll try to focus it on national security—the war on terror and homeland security. If the Dems are smart, they'll try to focus it on economic security, which they can stretch to include health care, education, jobs and trade.”

James K. Galbraith
A noted economist with expertise in wage inequality, employment issues, tax policy and globalization.

“The transcendent economic issue this election year isn't the growth rate. It isn't the stock market. It isn't the budget deficit. And it isn't even the rate of unemployment. It's the number of people in this country who have decent work—and the number who don't.”

Sherri Greenberg
A former Texas State Legislator with expertise in public financial management and political campaigns and elections.

“The key issue in this year's presidential election could be the War in Iraq. There are many reasons why. There is the whole issue of trust and misrepresentation concerning what the American people were told regarding weapons of mass destruction and other reasons for preemptive war. Also, If Kerry is the Democratic nominee there will be the issue of some one who actually served and was wounded in a war, contrasted with Bush's lack (some would say avoidance of service) and his "Bring it On " remark. Also, there are the mounting casualties in Iraq and the $ spent on "nation building" in Iraq while domestic programs are being cut.

“Another key issue could be the "jobless recovery" which could be a major point of contention when linked to the tax cuts for the wealthy.”

Barbara J. Robles
A former tax economist for the U.S. Congress with expertise in entrepreneurship and financial issues affecting Latinos and women.

“I suspect and strongly believe that two factors will continue to dominate the political debate:

1) The economy's failure to produce jobs and the restructuring of our current blue-collar and mid-level jobs (loss of these to offshore/overseas foreign firms)

2) The safety of the U.S. in broader terms than just the 'imminent' terrorism attacks but rather border security issues (immigration reform).

“Personally, I'd like to see a debate about family financial security: retirement/pension security, health care access/coverage and family friendly policies. But I anticipate this will get lost in the rhetoric on Iraq Reconstruction, National Security and Spending Cuts...with a real 'staying on message' by the incumbent party that tax cuts are a good thing for the economy and should be permanent and sustained.”

William Black
A former federal litigator with expertise in corporate fraud, public corruption and financial services industry regulation.

“It may not "surface," but I think the key issue in the election will be fear. September 11 continues to exert a profound shock on most Americans (vastly greater than the impact on people in other nations). Bush has skillfully capitalized on this fear and shows every sign (e.g., the State of the Union address) that he will continue to do so. Many of Americans feel that Bush has cynically manipulated that fear in ways that are dishonest and dangerous. The result is intense polarization of the electorate—which is historically unusual in the United States.”

William Spelman
A former Austin City Council member with expertise in homeland security, urban policy and local law enforcement.

“It's the economy, stupid. That's because it's always the economy, stupid! More specifically, it's wages and jobs. The stock market, business earnings, and leading indicators can go through the roof, but unless wages go up and joblessness goes down, most people will believe—correctly—that the apparent ‘recovery’ is meaningless.

“The reason: People vote for security. Unless they believe their personal security is threatened, perhaps by another major terrorist attack, most people will vote for the candidate who will do most for their economic security.”

Kenneth Matwickzak
A former U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel with expertise in applied statistics, econometrics and public management.

“Americans will vote their pocketbooks. If they feel comfy with the economic situation, then they'll support current regime. If not, I have no guess who'd oppose Bush. So, as always... it'll come down to personal economics, i.e., ‘How am I doing under the current administration?’ Why? Americans are historically self-centered, especially with the recent ‘me’ generation(s). . . . It's the American leadership who looks beyond the borders.”

Related Links:

LBJ School 2004 Election Expert Guide

Elspeth Rostow comments on the rhetoric of presidential campaigns (February 16, 2004)

The immigrant labor debate: LBJ Alum weighs in on Bush proposal (January 20, 2004)