THE RECORD
DECEMBER 3, 1976
NO. 33
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, THE
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN
EDITOR Hoyt H. Purvis
This is the first in a series of Record reports on 1976‑77 policy research
projects.
Whether Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) insurance
facilitates or impedes settlement of investment disputes is the question being
analyzed by one of the 10 policy research projects currently underway at the
LBJ School.
The project on "OPIC Investment Insurance" is being directed
by Sidney Weintraub, Dean Rusk Professor at the School, with Keith Arnold and
Victor Arnold as the other project faculty members. The project is co‑sponsored
by OPIC and the Lyndon B. Johnson Foundation.
The investment disputes being considered by the faculty‑student
group are those caused by the expropriation of U.S. corporate investment by
host foreign governments.
The research format is to examine a significant number of comparable
investment disputes, some in which there was OPIC Insurance and some in which
there was not. The study is analyzing the behavior of the companies, the host
government, and the U.S. government in these areas.
Twenty‑seven expropriation cases in six Latin American countries
have been selected for inclusion in the study. Corporate officials, host
country officials, and U.S. government officials have been contacted and
interviews are currently being scheduled. All of the interviews will be
completed by December 17, 1976.
Using U.S. State Department and Overseas Private Investment Corporation
files, summaries are being prepared for each case in the study. Country
profiles are also being prepared for each of the six countries using data from
international sources such as the World Bank. In addition, the Latin American
Studies Library on campus is being utilized for supplemental information on
each country. Corporate profiles are also being developed with the assistance
of the University of Texas School of Business, The Harvard Graduate School of
Business, and the corporations themselves. All of the profile work will also be
completed by December 17. The project is currently on schedule and it is
expected that the substantive analysis phase of the study will commence in
early 1977.
Prior to the convening of the 65th Texas Legislature next month, members
of the Legislature and their aides attended the. Pre‑Session Legislative
Conference, sponsored by the Legislature and the LBJ School, November 22‑24.
New legislators received an orientation on legislative rules and
procedures, and both new and returning members were on hand for discussions of
major issues which will confront the 65th Legislature.
State Comptroller Bob Bullock, delivering his official revenue estimate,
told the legislators they will have $2.9 billion surplus to work with, although
he quickly added that "the revenue boom can't last forever."
Bullock said, "This means the Legislature could have 34 percent
more revenue for the next two‑year budget than was available for the
current one. It will be up to the Legislature to decide what to do with the
additional money‑cut taxes, implement new programs, expand existing ones,
or perhaps, as some have suggested, save part of it for a rainy day."
House Speaker Bill Clayton reminded lawmakers that the surplus available
two years ago "vanished in the twinkling of an eye and we ended the
session by increasing the cost of state government by 21.2 percent. "
"We need more efficiency in government," Clayton said.
Bullock said the state will end the current biennium (on August 31,
1977) with a surplus of $949.4. The $2.9 billion figure is based on projected
growth in revenues during the next biennium plus the balance from this
biennium. Among factors cited by Bullock for the increased revenue are
increases in new‑car sales and franchise‑tax collections, and
accelerated natural gas prices.
Lt. Governor Bill Hobby discussed the recommendations of the Joint
Advisory Committee on Government Operations, which has made a number of
proposals it believes will improve state government. The Committee says its
proposals will bring increased coordination among state agencies and help
eliminate duplication of services and projects. The Committee also favors strong
controls on college building programs.
"The real work of this Committee has been the in‑depth
examination of a series of major issues in state government which have no easy
answers," Hobby said. "How do you make Texas government more
efficient? What is the best organizational arrangement to provide effective
government in the areas of natural resource development, social services, or
higher education? These are the types of issues which the Committee has
addressed."
Hobby noted that adoption of the recommendations would not necessarily
provide a much cheaper state government "but will provide the opportunity
for major changes."
Ray Marshall, professor of economics and a member of the LBJ School
participating faculty, said, "We're getting away from exclusive reliance
on general or macro‑economic policy. We have to have disaggregated and
sectoral approaches. The role of the state becomes more important."
Marshall discussed the public economic policies of the Carter
Administration and said, "In a nutshell, Carter will try to move toward
full employment without inflation.
Nixon and Ford believed that high unemployment was necessary to check
inflation. Carter believes that unemployment is inflationary. . ."
Spending, taxing differences
Dean Alan Campbell of the Maxwell School at Syracuse University
contrasted the fiscal conditions of the Northeast and the Southeast and
Southwest.
Among the comparisons made by Campbell were the differing tax burdens in
New York and Texas.
"An examination of per capita tax burdens for New York and Texas
reveals that the burden is approximately twice as high in New York, $1,025 per
capita, as it is in Texas, $515 per capita. However, the rate of growth of
state and local taxes has been greater for the 1970‑75 period in Texas than
in New York."
Campbell added "Taxes measured as a proportion of income again
shows the state‑local burden (per capita taxes as a percent of per capita
income) as being much higher in New York—16.6 percent compared to 10.4
percent in Texas."
However, Campbell commented, "It is my guess that if current
economic growth patterns continue there will be a decline in the size of the
burden gap between the two states over the next decade."
Campbell also discussed the question of federal aid and expenditures.
"When total federal expenditures are compared, i.e., not only
intergovernmental flows of funds but all federal expenditures, it is found that
for New York federal spending equals $1,449 per capita, and for Texas $1,296.
The large differences by purpose of expenditure are: for welfare, New York $181
per capita and Texas $ 100; for defense spending for salaries, which is really
a measure of where federal military installations exist, New York $31 per
capita and Texas $198; for defense contracts, New York $213 per capita and
Texas $192.
"Whatever the justification for the current pattern of federal
expenditures regionally, current political activity in the Northeast and
Midwest will cause these flows to come under the Congressional microscope
during that body's next session. What will emerge cannot be known, but probably
some adjustment in federal spending patterns will be attempted. Full federal
assumption for welfare expenditures would bring more relief to slow growing
regions of the nation than any other single federal action," Campbell
said.
The conference also included a series of topical sessions on major
policy topics. The topics were:
Professional
Malpractice Risks;
Energy
Development and Regulation;
Property
Taxation;
Crime
and Criminal Justice.
Panelists included Attorney General John Hill, Utilities Commissioner
Alan Erwin, Railroad Commissioner‑elect Jon Newton, and several members
of the Legislature.
Professor Marlan Blissett of the LBJ School moderated the discussion on
energy, and Lynn Anderson, director of the Office of Conferences and Training,
which coordinated the conference, moderated the session on property taxation,
with Professor John Gronouski who served as one of the panelists.
LBJ School students Bonnie Young, Marc Jacobson, Lea Johnson, and Mary
Stack were rapporteurs.
At the opening general session of the conference, the participants were
welcomed by University President Lorene Rogers and by Acting Dean Jurgen
Schmandt of the LBJ School.
Professor Jared Hazleton was moderator for the discussion on
"Fiscal and Economic Size‑Up of Texas."
A publication based on the conference will be published by the School.
. Dr. Stephen H. Spurr, professor of public affairs and botany, has been
elected to a three‑year term on the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in
Higher Education. Spurr also is a member of the board of trustees of the
Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching.
. Professors Albert Blum and Richard Schott of the LBJ School were
panelists for a discussion on "Cultural Policy and Funding for the
Arts," at the Fourth Congress of the International Brecht Society,
November 17‑20. The event was sponsored by The University of Texas at
Austin, the College of Humanities, and the Department of Germanic Languages.
. Proceedings of the Eighteenth County Auditors' Institute has been published by the Office of
Publications. The Institute, which was held in May, was planned and directed by
the Office of Conferences and Training in cooperation with the County Auditors'
Association of Texas. Major topics considered at the Institute included
effective budget techniques and procedures; federal grants management; open
records laws and their impact on county government; financial disclosure
requirements for local government debt; and current legal aspects of county
government and finance.
. Two LBJ School second‑year students, Bonnie Young and Sarah
Marie Smith, have been selected for inclusion in Who's Who in American Colleges and Universities.
. Two second‑year LBJ School students, Carol McDonald and John
Kamensky, have been nominated by The University of Texas for the Luce
Fellowship.
. First‑year students should be alert to deadlines and directions
for internships. Students initiating their own internships must be certain to
have completed forms. Students having a preference among those internship
possibilities which have been posted should turn them in by December 10, along
with their memos. Those wishing to discuss particular internships should make
an appointment with Elizabeth Hall.
. Joe Morin, second‑year student at the LBJ School, and his wife
are the parents of a son, born November 14.
. Hoyt Purvis, director of publications, was a panelist at the recent
School of Communications Job Clinic '76. Purvis spoke about careers combining
communications and public affairs.
. The next issue of The Record will be published on
December 13 and will be the final issue for 1976. Deadline for items to be
included in that issue is December 7.
An article on "Research on Teacher Unionism," by Professor
Albert A. Blum has been published in the Journal of Collective Negotiations.
The article presents an overview of research into public teacher
unionization. It describes the nature of research versus opinion, the types of
research that exist, and examines the results and trends of some of the
research done since 1962.
Blum reviews the various types of research which have been done and the
evolution of research with the changing issues in the field of teacher
unionism.
Having reviewed the research of the past decade, he also looks at some
of the research needs of the future. "We have to start examining some of
the generalizations and begin to test them," Blum writes. "For
example, there are many theories about the growth of unions. They deal with the
economic, political, sociopsychological, and industrial relations factors that
bring about growth. More information concerning these areas should be gathered
and ought to be explored in terms of specific cases, in specific areas, to see
whether these factors make real sense in terms of the growth of teacher
unionization in America."
Blum also discusses the question of collective bargaining and strikes as
well as the relationship between improved education and teacher unionization.
The Record
continues its coverage of the recent conference on "Conflict, Order, and
Peace in the Americas," with this summation of one of the papers presented
at the conference. This report is based on the summary by the rapporteur, Kaveh
Said Gharib.
Irving Louis Horowitz, professor of sociology and political science at
Rutgers, presented his paper entitled Technocracy and Determinism in the
Latin American Military. Horowitz
emphasized the last and what he termed the most "controversial"
segment of his paper, namely, the Developmental versus Dependency Models of
Hemispheric Militarism."
Horowitz argued that military intervention in politics is a function of
class and that militarism could be interpreted as either a "concomitant of
oligarchical regimes" or a "part of middle‑class pressure"
or perhaps a "guardian of proletarian interests", as in the Cuban
revolution. Although the military in Latin America, as in other areas of the
globe, is indeed linked to social classes, it also needs to be considered as
"an autonomous and independent agency of power" so as to
"examine its impact on corresponding parts of the national system."
This national system, he argued, is subdivided into four major categories which
he called polity, economy, society, and military, under the general framework
of nationalism.
Dr. Horowitz argued that military regimes are not merely
"accidental" developments, but instead are based on "the centrality
of the military and a corresponding weakness of social economic class on one
hand, and political power and organization on the other." Thus, the
military comes to power when "no class can exercise supreme economic
hegemony or political legitimacy." Furthermore, Dr. Horowitz stated that
the military is not a cure for "economic inflation and political
instability", and therefore military rule is not set about in order to
"satisfy economic, political or social claims, but ... to satisfy the
structural conditions of the twentieth century nationalism in the Third
World". No generalizations can be made on the degree of the stability of
the military as opposed to that of a civilian regime.
The final section of the paper dealt with the considerable shift of attitude
by the United States toward Latin America during recent years. There has been a
noticeable decrease in military aid. In Horowitz's words, "Latin America
is already one area of the Third World where United States' policymakers have
made fundamental distinctions between the realities of development and rhetoric
of anti‑Communism."
Marvin Alisky, professor of political science at Arizona State,
expressed agreement with Dr. Horowitz's general views and particularly the fact
that although many nations spend a large percentage of their national budget on
armament, trends in military spending have been downward in Latin America
during the past decade. He said. that the military has increased its status in
Cuba as of the year 1972.
In response to a question as to where, other than in the military, well‑trained
leaders can be found, Dr. Horowitz replied that the military does provide
expertise in leadership, but that the question of how to attain democracy with
a military regime is unclear. Bruce Russett stated that in a developing
country, many demands cannot be met. The poor being relatively easy to
suppress, and the rich harder to repress, the latter is many cases "bought
off". Who is it in Latin America that is being "bought off"?
Horowitz's answer was that although the military had indeed the capacity to
supress, it generally chooses not to use such power, since this does not
necessarily lead to stability. Hence, the military exercises a "threat
mechanism", and does not have to "buy off" any particular social
group.
Hoyt Purvis stated the belief that it is mainly the Congress that is
responsible for recent U.S. shifts in policy toward military regimes and
Horowitz agreed. The desire to diminish U.S. arms sales to Latin American
nations was motivated in part to avoid arms competition in the area, as it
exists in other regions such as the Middle East. Finally, Ms. B. Cole pointed
out that the police force, in various Latin American countries, is quite as
militaristic as the military itself; thus, has there been a shift from United
States military aid to United States police aid? Horowitz responded that,
although no one has access to enough data, it is quite true that in some Latin
American countries the police force is better equipped and financed than the military.
A valid illustration of this fact is to be found in Paraguay, where "if
there ever were to be a showdown between the police and the military, the
police might well win such a conflict."
Two LBJ School faculty members, Beryl Radin and Gery Williams, made
presentations at the Regional Conference of the American Society for Public
Administration (ASPA) in Denver, November 14‑16.
The Region 8 ASPA Conference was entitled "Looking to the Future:
Making Government Work in Difficult Times."
Radin participated in a panel entitled "Human Resources
Administration: What Have We Learned? Where Are We Going?" Her
presentation was a report on the June, 1976, conference in Louisville, Ky.,
cosponsored by the Section on Human Resources Administration.
Williams took part in a panel on "Program Planning and
Evaluation" and made a presentation on "Policy Planning—A
Conceptual Overview."
Placement Director Wilda Campbell was also at the conference
participating in an ASPA task force working with the U.S. Civil Service
Commission on jobs and job classification for MPA graduates.
Professor David Eaton presented an invited paper at a Conference on
Systems Analysis in Agriculture sponsored by the Control Systems Society and
the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) in Clearwater
Beach, Florida on December 2. His paper, entitled "Grain Reserve Sizing: A
Multi‑Objective and Stochastic Analysis," develops a methodology to
size a world grain reserve to achieve multiple public objectives. It addresses
the issue of how large a grain reserve should be in order to stabilize grain
supplies over the worst series of sequential (back‑to‑back)
shortfalls in production that could occur in the future based on historical
fluctuations of production. The paper, co‑authored with colleagues in the
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Johns Hopkins University, and Pennsylvania
State University, will be published by IEEE in early 1977.
Professor Eaton is also presenting an invited paper at the "Water
for Energy Development" Conference of the Engineering Foundation and the
U.S. Water Resources Council in Pacific Grove, California on December 7. His
paper, entitled "Shale Oil Technology," deals with the technological
options for the extraction of liquid fossil fuels from kerogen in Western
shales. These engineering alternatives include methods for extraction,
processing, transport, and conversion of hydrocarbons from shale and the
management of air, water, and solid waste residuals from such processes. The
paper will be published by the Engineering Foundation and the Water Resources
Council in early 1977.
On November 23, Professor Eaton addressed the Geography Department at
the University of Texas at Austin on the subject of facility location to
improve access of health services to the rural poor in Colombia, South America.
His talk, "Set Covering and the Location of Rural Health Outposts in
Colombia: The Utility and Limitations of a Technique," is based upon work
underway at the LBJ School which is being supported by the U.S. Agency for
International Development and the Colombian Ministry of Public Health.
A number of LBJ School students and faculty have been visiting campuses
around the nation to talk with persons interested in the School. In recent
weeks Jared Hazleton was at Howard University in Washington; Cloteal Davis and
Rodney Ellis were in Atlanta, Georgia for a field day at Atlanta Circle; Acting
Dean Schmandt was at Rice University; Associate Dean Arnold was at Arizona
State; Elizabeth Hall visited eight colleges in five days in North Carolina and
Massachusetts; Emmette Redford was at Southern Methodist University in Dallas;
Jared Hazleton at Emory in Atlanta, Georgia; several students were at UT
Austin; Liz Hall, the
College of Social and Behaviorial Sciences Career Night at UT; and at Trinity
College in San Antonio—alumni in Michigan, and Arkansas; Scott Fleming at
Georgetown; Beryl Radin at the University of Virginia.
Other trips are in the planning stages. If any members of the faculty
will be traveling and have an extra half day to visit a college in the area,
please notify Elizabeth Hall.
If any of the students wish to visit colleges in the areas during Christmas
holidays, the OSA will be glad to provide them the necessary brochures and
flyers.
3-4
— Dr. Allen Feldt and Dr. Richard Duke, two experts
in the field of gaming/simulation will teach the planning module of R&MS on
the morning of December 3 and will run games/simulation in the afternoon and on
December 4.
5-7
—Eighteenth Institute for Tax Assessors, Thompson
Conference Center
6
—Department Heads and Key Staff Meeting (9:30 a.m.)
7-8
—Glen P. Wilson, staff member, U.S. Senate Committee
on Aeronautical and Space Sciences, will visit the School. He will address a
schoolwide seminar in the Student Lounge on Wednesday December 8 at 4 p.m. The
topic will be "The Changing Face of Science Policy."
14-15
—John Macy, former chairman of the Civil Service
Commission, Presidential assistant for personnel during the Johnson
Administration, and currently president of the Council of Better Business
Bureaus will visit the school. He will speak to a brown-bag luncheon on
Wednesday, December 25 on "Presidential Staffing."
15
— Fred Ikle, director of the Arms Control and
Disarmament Agency, will address a schoolwide seminar at 4 p.m. in the Student
Lounge. His topic will be "What Lies Ahead in Arms Control?"
17
— Student Evaluations, Last Day of Classes
U.S. Representative J. J. (Jake) Pickle told LBJ School students that
Jimmy Carter will definitely enjoy a honeymoon with Congress when his term as
President begins.
But, Pickle said at a brown‑bag luncheon on November 16,
"Honeymoons never last long."
"It depends on what he proposes. . . He may run into opposition if
he proposes a massive public works program. There is a limit to what the
government can do. Congress will probably give him the benefit of the doubt,
however,"
In regard to tax cut proposals, Pickle said, "Congress has some
reservations. I have. And I don't know what the economic factors may be at the
time."
Pickle, a member of the Ways and Means Committee, said, "I think
the relationship will be good and initially, at least, he will get what he asks
for."
"He (Carter) faces an extremely difficult job in trying to get the
budget in the black in four years," Pickle said.
The Eighteenth Institute for Tax Assessors, sponsored by the LBJ School
in cooperation with the Texas Association of Assessing Officers and the Texas
Municipal League, will be held in the Thompson Conference Center December 5‑7.
The Institute is an advanced level, in service training course designed
to meet the professional needs of Texas tax assessors and their subordinate
personnel in all units of local government.
A large and enthusiastic crowd witnessed the second annual LBJ School
Follies at the Faculty Center on November 20. With the theme, "The Worst
and the Wasted," the second‑year class presented a fast‑moving
satirical review. LBJ School personalities and events were the subject of a
series of humorous skits. Among the many highlights of the performance were
Donna Nilsen's musical contributions; John Carlson as Jimmy Carter; Sarah
Smith's antics; Bob Farley as Gerald Ford; Steve Clyburn's bumbling; Vicki
Tynan and Lynn Cooksey in a variety of roles; and Scott Fleming's showmanship.
‑‑‑ Anon.
A sharply critical review by Kenneth Boulding of The Poverty of
Power: Energy and the Economic Crisis by Barry Commoner has been published in the November/December issue of Society.
Boulding, the distinguished visiting Tom Slick Professor in World Peace
at the LBJ School, says the book "is a very bad one," despite the
fact that Commoner is "a good man."
Boulding says, "There are logical fallacies on almost every page.
There are a considerable number of passages that would serve admirably in
examinations to test students' understanding of social and economic systems,
for any student who could not detect the fallacies would deserve to flunk the
examination."
Calling the book "in many ways ... dishonest," Boulding says
it is "a political tract disguised as a scientific statement."
He says the book illustrates one of the great dangers of
interdisciplinary work: "that without a constant check from the
disciplines themselves, the interdisciplinary easily becomes the
undisciplined."
Boulding is critical of Commoner on a number of points, including his
anger with the oil companies and his "strange nostalgic attachments, for
example, to trolley cars." He accuses Commoner of "sheer Pollyanish
optimism."
Commoner's hopes for solar energy are a particular topic of Boulding's.
"The brute fact is that, with presently visible techniques and at
present energy prices, the solar energy that falls on the average square meter
of the earth is at the moment not worth picking up," Boulding writes.
Boulding says "it is grossly misleading to suggest that solar
energy is a sure thing and that in 50 or 60 years we can derive all our energy
needs from it. There is no current evidence to suggest that this statement is
true."
Boulding says that if the book is believed "it could do a great
deal of harm."
Boulding concludes that there is a real danger that environmentalism
"may become a quasi‑dogmatic religion losing touch with the real
needs and desires of real people, especially of poor people."
The Rotary Club of Austin has announced that the Club is seeking young
men and women who are residents of Austin as candidates for the Rotary
Foundation Educational Awards for study abroad in the 1978‑79 academic
year.
Among the awards offered by the Foundation are graduate fellowships for
those who have received a bachelor's degree or equivalent and are between the
ages of 20 and 28. Technical training awards are made to persons with a
secondary education and at least two‑years working experience.
Information about application for the awards is available through the
Office of Student Affairs. Students from other cities or states should contact
the Rotary Club in their home
town.