Spring 2006 Course Description

Advanced Empirical Methods for Policy Analysis

Section Title: Analyzing Government Economic Statistics
Instructor(s): Robert Auerbach
Course: P A 397C - Advanced Empirical Methods for Policy Analysis
(previously Applied Quantitative Analysis II)
Unique Number: 62695
Day & Time: Thursdays, 9:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Room: SRH 3.106
Waitlist Information:For LBJ Students: UT Waitlist Information

Description: This is a user-friendly course in applied statistics in which estimates of economic activity including national income estimates, employment survey data, and financial data will be described. Procedures will be presented for transforming time series data into meaningful measures for comparison purposes, such as indexes and rates of change, and for preparing graphs and summary statistics of these series. Applied methods of calculating compound interest and estimating yields and present values from finite and perpetual payment streams will be presented and used with government statistics. Regression analysis will be described taking into account problems associated with periodicities and trends in the variables. Control problems that occur when a variable is under the control of the government will be addressed. Simple filtering, white noise series applications, and tests for measuring leads and lags between variables will be presented. Granger causality, ARIMA procedures, and cointegration methods will be presented. Seasonal adjustment problems and methods will be described including problems arising from some data smoothing procedures.

There will be two tests each weighted by 25 points. Completion of all homework assignments is necessary but not sufficient for a final grade of A or B. The final project is a statistical research project that is weighted by 50 points. It is due on the last day of class.

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