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Paul D. Miller

Paul D. Miller


Contact Info

FAC 2480

Office Hours

By Appointment

Paul D. Miller is the Associate Director of the Clements Center for History, Strategy & Statecraft at The University of Texas at Austin. Previously, he was political scientist in the National Security Research Division at the RAND Corporation. He served as Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan on the National Security Council staff from 2007 through September 2009. Prior to joining RAND, Miller was an assistant professor at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., at which he developed and directed the College of International Security Affairs' South and Central Asia Program. He also worked as an analyst in the Central Intelligence Agency's Office of South Asian Analysis, and served in Afghanistan as a military intelligence analyst with the U.S. Army. 

Miller holds a Ph.D. in international relations and a B.A. in government from Georgetown University, and a master's in public policy from Harvard University. He is the author of Armed State Building (Cornell University Press, 2013), a study of the causes of success and failure in reconstruction and stabilization operations. His writing has appeared in Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, Studies in Intelligence, Presidential Studies Quarterly, and Small Wars and Insurgencies


Ph.D. in International Relations, Georgetown University, 2010

Masters in Public Policy, Harvard University, JFK School of Government, 2001

B.A. in Government, Georgetown University, 1999 (Magna cum Laude, concentration in Political Theory)

Visiting Student in Modern History, Oxford University, 1997-1998

Current Positions

Associate Director, The Clements Center for History, Strategy, and Statescraft, The University of Texas at Austin (2014 – Present)

Political Scientist, The RAND Corporation (2013 – Present)

Previous Positions

Assistant Professor of International Security Studies, National Defense University, College of International Security Affairs (2010 - 2014)

Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan, National Security Council staff, The White House (2007 - 2009)

Political Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of South Asian Analysis (2003 – 2007)

Intelligence Officer, United States Army (2000-2014) Strategic intelligence analyst and Counterintelligence platoon leader. 

Intelligence Analyst (Active), Combined Joint Task Force – 180, Intelligence Support Element, Bagram Airbase, Afghanistan, 2002.


Armed State Building: Confronting State Failure, 1898-2012. Cornell University Press, Studies in Security Affairs, 2013.

American Grand Strategy After Iraq and Afghanistan: The Democratic Peace and the Balance of Power in the 21st Century. Prospectus under review at Georgetown University Press.


Academic Publications

“Organizing the NSC:  I Like Ike’s,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 3 (September 2013), 592-606.

“A Bibliographic Essay on the Allied Occupation and Reconstruction of Germany, 1945-1955,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 24, No. 4, 2013, pg. 751-759.


Rand Publications

“Democracy in Afghanistan: The 2014 Election and Beyond,” March 1, 2014. PE-120-OSD. (Download here)

“Expecting Peace: Getting to Negotiations in Syria,” July 18, 2014. PE-126-OSD. (Read here)

“U.S. Special Operations Command (Forward) – Pakistan, 2008-2011: A History,” June 2014, with Linda Robinson. RR-625-OSD.

“Examining the Effectiveness of Training, Advice, and Assistance in Support of Counter Terrorism Objectives,” January 2014, with Linda Robinson and Larry Hanauer. RR-568-SOJTF-A

“Land Warfare in Changing Conflicts,” forthcoming. With Linda Robinson, et al.


Policy Publications

“Afghanistan’s Coming Coup?”, April 2, 2014. (Read here)

“Evangelicals, Israel, and U.S. Foreign Policy,” Survival, Vol. 56, No. 1, February/March 2014, pg. 7-26. (Read here)

“After 2014:  the U.S. in Afghanistan After Transition,” Survival, Vol. 55, Issue 1, 2013, pg. 87-101. (Read here)

“Afghanistan, Justice, and War,” First Things, February 2013, No. 230, pg. 39-44.

“Five Pillars of U.S. Grand Strategy,” Survival, Vol. 54, Issue 5, October/November 2012, pg. 7-44. (Read here)

“How to Exercise U.S. Leverage Over Pakistan,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 35, Issue 4, Fall 2012, pg. 37-52. (Download here)

“The Fading Arab Oil Empire,” National Interest, No. 120, July/August 2012, pg. 38-43. (Read here)

“Be Afraid:  Why the World is More Dangerous Than You Think,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91, No. 4, July/August 2012, pg. 146-9. (Read here)

“American Grand Strategy and the Democratic Peace,” Survival, Vol. 54, Issue 2, April/May 2012, pg. 49-76. (Read Here)

“It’s Not Just al-Qaeda:  Stability in the Most Dangerous Region,” World Affairs Journal, March/April 2012, pg. 63-73. (Read here)

“The Case for Nation Building:  Why and How to Fix Failed States,” Prism, Vol. 3, No. 1, December 2011, pg. 63-74. (Read here)

“Finish the Job:  How to Win the War in Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2011, Vol. 90, No. 1, pg. 51-65. (Read here)

“Working for the War Czar:  Intelligence Support to Policy in Crises,” Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 54, No. 2, June 2010. (Download here)


Book Reviews

“Rubin’s Record on Afghanistan,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 129, No. 2, Summer 2014, pg. 342-3. (Read here)

“Gates Unhinged,” a review of Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War, by Robert M. Gates,, March 2014. (Read here)

 “The Most Dangerous Place on Earth,” review essay of Pakistan: A Hard Country, by Anatol Lieven; Dangerous Embrace, by Bruce Reidel; and The Unraveling, by John Schmidt in Books and Culture, forthcoming.

“Afghanistan Demystified,” A review of Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History, by Thomas Barfield, in Books and Culture, November/December 2011, page 16. (Read here)

“Secret Service:  The Swashbuckler Behind America’s Clandestine Agencies,” The Weekly Standard, July 18, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 41. (Read here)


Op-Eds, Magazines, and Blogs

Contributor to Shadow Government blog on

“Punishing the Wicked in Syria,”, September 10, 2013 (Read here)

“Promises, Promises:  The U.S.-Afghan Strategic Partnership,” The AfPak Channel,, May 21, 2012 (Read here)

“Five Steps to Better Politics in Afghanistan,” The AfPak Channel,, April 9, 2012 (Read here)

“The Lessons of Iraq,” The City, Vol. IV, Issue 3, Winter 2011, pg. 58-67. (Read here)

“When Does the U.S. Drone War Stop?” The Washington Post, 18 November 2011. (Read here)

“Congressional Oversight in Afghanistan,”, February 14, 2011. (Read here)