Op-Ed
Middle Easterners Suggest Adjustments in U.S. Policy
Austin American-Statesman, November 4, 2006
Edwin Dorn, Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs
President Bush needs new ideas about the entire Middle East, not just Iraq. But where can he find them? One source is Middle Easterners themselves, especially moderates who have been trying for years to foster democratic reforms in their own countries.
During the past two years, a group of about two dozen scholars, political activists and policy experts from the United States, Europe and the Middle East has held eight three-day meetings to discuss developments in the Arab world. The dozen Middle East participants are from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian territories.
After participating in nearly 200 hours of meetings, which are sponsored by the International Institute for Sustained Dialog, I am beginning to understand the perspective of Arab moderates. One of the things I have learned is that the Arabs do not expect Bush to change course dramatically, either in Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East. They believe strongly, however, that the president can use his remaining two years in office to set the stage for constructive moves by his successor. Here are five adjustments the Arabs believe Bush should make:
- Stop conflating the occupation of Iraq with the war on terror. In recent months, the president has insisted that Iraq is the central battleground in the war on terror, which he describes as the "defining conflict" of the 21st century. Arab moderates see things differently, perhaps because their historical perspective is much longer than the president's. When they hear the phrase "conflict of civilizations," Arabs think about the Crusades, or about the centuries-long struggle that ended when Queen Isabella expelled Jews and Muslims from Spain. By those historical standards, Bush's apocalyptic rhetoric is greatly overblown.
- Arab moderates are very worried, however, that the exaggerated rhetoric will backfire. On the one side, they say, is Bush, who insists that "You're either with me, or you're with the terrorists." On the other side are Muslim extremists who insist that "You're either with us, or you're with the infidels." The strong, relentless squeeze from both sides leaves little room in the middle for people who cannot reduce the world to a simple contest between—to quote more of Bush's rhetoric—"the forces of light and the forces of darkness."
- Set the conditions for reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Serious discussions cannot proceed without the involvement of Hamas, the majority Palestinian political party. Unfortunately, Bush painted himself into a corner by pressing for democratic elections in the Palestinian territories and then, when Hamas won, refusing to recognize it. The way out of this cul-de-sac is for American diplomats to start building relationships with individual leaders within Hamas. The European Union is months ahead of the United States in developing those relationships.
- Publicly recognize the legitimate interests of Iraq's neighbors. Six countries border Iraq: Turkey, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. All of them are capable of complicating the U.S. occupation, and at least two of them are actively trying to do so. On the other hand, none of those countries wants Iraq to disintegrate into chaos. Turkey, Iran and Syria do not want Iraq to be divided into a federation based on the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish ethnic groups, because that would embolden the Kurdish separatist movements in their own countries. The United States has many areas of disagreement with Iran and Syria, but it may be possible for the three countries to agree on ways to prevent Iraq from disintegrating.
- Set a timetable for a U.S. drawdown in Iraq. The Arab moderates do not expect American forces to withdraw immediately. However, they are incredulous that U.S. officials cannot set a timetable based on progress toward measurable, achievable objectives. It will not be possible to stop all of the violence associated with ethnic conflict, insurgency and criminal activity in Iraq. At some point short of a complete cessation of violence, Bush must be able to say, "The American military has done all that it can." The president's refusal to set goals and timetables fuels suspicions in the Arab world that the United States plans to have a huge presence in Iraq for a long time.
- Finally, set the example. The Arab participants in our dialogue have made huge sacrifices over many years to support democratic reforms in their own countries. Several of them have been imprisoned without trial, subjected to "aggressive interrogation," and forced into exile. Indeed, one member of the group has been held without trial in a Syrian prison for several months. Torture is torture and imprisonment without trial is imprisonment without trial, no matter which government does it and no matter what the stated justification. Arab moderates are deeply distressed that the United States seems to be resorting to methods that they have fought against for so long in their own countries.
These changes probably will strike most Americans as reasonable. They also offer the advantage of allowing the president to adjust his course rather than to reverse it completely. If reason can prevail among sensible people in the United States and in the Middle East, it may have a chance of taking hold in Washington.
Dorn, a professor of public policy at the University of Texas, Austin, served as an under secretary of Defense during the Clinton administration.
Copyright 2006, Austin American-Statesman
