Summer (2nd Session) 2009 Course Description
Topics in Policy
Please note: Public Affairs undergraduate courses do not count toward any graduate degree program offered by the LBJ School. These courses are intended for students enrolled in undergraduate programs at the University.
Description: In theory, public policy is easy enough that George Will and Frank Rich can explain it all for you in the newspaper. In reality, it’s hard enough that Jon Stewart and Steve Colbert will never run out of material. The difference between simple theory and stupid government action is often the failure to answer questions like, “How much?”
Take a look at today’s paper and see if you don’t agree. I’m writing on 22 March 2007, and reading the New York Times on the Internet. The big story this afternoon: The House of Representatives began debating the Iraq War spending bill. President Bush argued for keeping troops in Iraq as long as it takes, saying, “Let our folks on the ground do their job.” The House leadership wants combat troops out of Iraq by Fall 2008. There’s plenty of politics, ideology, and testosterone wafting around, but ultimately, the debate boils down to the evidence: Is violence in Iraq abating? Will the “surge” work? For better or worse, the best way to tell is to count attacks and deaths.
Al Gore appeared before Congress to discuss global warming, which he called a “planetary emergency.” Congressman James Inhofe argued with him, claiming that “[Y]our global warming alarmist pronouncements are now and have always been filled with inaccuracies and misleading statements.” Is the planet really warming? How much, what difference does it make, and what can we realistically do about it? Anyone who’s seen An Inconvenient Truth knows that Gore’s argument is full of statistics. If we’re to resolve the controversy and do the right thing, we’ll need to make sense of the evidence.
And 13 minutes ago, John Edwards said he’ll continue to run for President even though his wife’s breast cancer has returned. The cancer has metastasized beyond the breast tissue, and Ms. Edwards is no longer curable. The American Cancer Society estimates that only one in four women with stage four breast cancer live as long as five years. Nevertheless, Edwards remains optimistic, saying many patients with her condition have lived many years. He’s right, of course, but is it reasonable to believe that she’ll beat the odds?
Public policy is full of questions like these. This course is designed to give participants the mathematical background they need to make sense of them and to begin to resolve them. We’ll cover four, basic issues:
Functions and graphs – Policy analysts need to visualize and graph relationships among variables, describe them precisely in words, and manipulate the xs and ys. They also need to be able to use transcendental functions – e and logarithms – and solve simultaneous algebraic equations.
Differential calculus – If w depends on x, y, and z, how much will w change if we change each of the others just a little bit? That’s what calculus is for. After considering the basic rules of differentiation, we’ll apply them to some optimization problems: What should we set x, y, and z to, if we want the highest or lowest amount of y?
Probability – Much of what we need to know is expressed in terms of probabilities. We’ll consider the multiple meanings of probability, calculate probabilities from raw data, and make logical connections among probability statements. Along the way, we’ll also demonstrate why none of us knows as much as we think we do, and what we can do to adjust for that.
Statistics – Analysts often use graphs and statistical measures to summarize the shape of a batch of numbers or distribution. We’ll also examine some public policy applications of the binomial and normal probability distributions, and consider the meaning and construction of confidence intervals.
At the end, you won’t be able to go toe-to-toe with Paul Krugman (an excellent urban economist before
he became a rich and famous pundit). But you will have the background to take on graduate work in public policy.
This course serves as the foundation to quantitative analysis in the graduate policy curriculum in general, and as the prerequisite to the quantitative sequence in the M.P.Aff. program at the LBJ School in particular. No prior knowledge of calculus or statistics is required, but students enrolling in this course are expected to have a background in basic algebra. It’s OK if you’re a little rusty. You were probably better prepared for this class when you were 15, but it will all come back when you need it.
Return to Summer (2nd Session) 2009 Undergraduate Course Schedule
