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Texas 2000 Weather
|Forecast discussion, Wed., Aug. 23,
Winds at the surface this morning are light and variable. Some
stations along Galveston Bay are hinting at a land breeze, but not
all of them. Profiler data shows that winds aloft are more southerly
(from SSE) and weaker (5-15 kts) than yesterday. Thunderstorms have
already formed early this morning, indicating that wide-spread
thunderstorms will develop over the observational area later this
morning and early afternoon. Extensive mid to upper level cloudiness
due to the convection, and the increased vertical mixing, will
hamper the production of ozone this afternoon. Background levels are
moderate this morning (mid 30s ppb at Galveston), but ozone should
not be above 90 ppb (hourly average) today due to the thunderstorm
Max temperature lower 90s, higher well inland away from the
convection and gulf breeze.
Quick Look at Tomorrow
General drying trend is being produced by all models. Therefore,
I do not expect as wide-spread an area of thunderstorms as today or
yesterday. It is still possible that widely-scattered (less than 20%
areal coverage) thunderstorms can develop in areas where the
convergence along the gulf/bay breezes is maximized. Winds will
continue to be on the weak side, out of the south. As long as
thunderstorms stay away from the observational network area,
conditions will be favorable for detecting high ozone.
Strong ridge will produce calmer winds and lessened precipitation
chances through the weekend. As a result, we should see high ozone
days this weekend. The weaker winds during the nighttime hours will
allow land breezes to develop and allow reverse flow events to
occur. Current forecasts regarding Hurricane Debby are more
uncertain. A weak trough is moving towards the southeast US, and may
curve Debby out away from the Gulf. We will certainly have a better
idea as to Debby's chances to enter the Gulf in the next 48 hours.
Should Debby indeed enter the Gulf, early next week could be good
ozone days with winds turning from the NE, resulting in dirty
continental air advecting over the Houston area. In addition,
subsidence away from the hurricane rainbands will help to diminish
whatever precipitation chances we do have early next week.
Forecaster Karl Schulze