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Texas 2000 Weather
|Forecast discussion, Mon., Aug. 28,
Conditions are very similar to yesterday. Winds were light and
southerly overnight except along parts of the immediate Gulf coast.
Winds will be very light during the morning and become southeasterly
during the early afternoon, with enhanced onshore flow with the
bay/gulf breeze onset around 11-12. Profiler data from this morning
show similar southerly flow aloft as yesterday, which will mix down
during the day. By afternoon, winds will be from the S-SE at 10-15
knots. Clouds will evolve much like they did yesterday, with
scattered cumulus building to a broken layer by late morning, then
gradually thinning out as bay breeze subsidence and dry air
entrainment aloft develop. Thundershowers can not be ruled out,
especially in areas where low-level convergence is maximized near
the gulf/bay breeze. Chance of precipitation is 15%. Background
ozone levels are low, except for Galveston (32 ppb at 7 a.m.).
Expect similar ozone levels as yesterday (on the low side), due to
strong winds, vertical mixing, and low background levels. Highest
ozone levels will be just north and east of the ship channel in
early afternoon; just north of downtown in mid to late afternoon.
Max temperature upper 90s.
Quick Look at Tomorrow
No foreseeable change from today, with surface high pressure
holding strong over the area. Should the high move westward (as the
models are indicating), winds should be lighter and more easterly
than today. Cloudiness and precipitation chances are similar to
Same pattern holds until Wednesday. Extended-range models are
developing a strong low pressure center east of Florida, such that
by Thursday, we could begin to see the surface winds back around and
become more northerly. If this happens, a convergence line could
develop near Victoria (with southerly flow continuing south and west
of this line), which would help to focus thuderstorm development
later in the week. Should this convergence line remain well to our
south, it won't be a cause of concern to us. With the flow coming
off the continental U.S., background levels should be higher and
allow us to see high levels of ozone in the afternoon, depending on
the strength of the winds.
Forecaster Karl Schulze