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Texas A&M forecast data: http://www.met.tamu.edu/t2k/
|Forecast discussion, Mon., Aug. 21,
Winds for the most part are on the weak side at the surface (SW-W
5-10 kt), but profiler data shows winds are stronger aloft (10-15
kts to 1 km), and more easterly winds further aloft than on previous
days (15-20 kts up to 3 km). Expect same evolution of winds as in
the past few days, with the exception of them being more
southeasterly light in morning, picking up from southeast near noon,
with sea and bay breezes along coasts; southeast winds during the
middle and late afternoon. Expect max levels around 100-110 ppb due
to slightly stronger winds, increased vertical mixing, and very low
background levels (max of 34 ppb in Galveston this morning). In
addition, due to the more easterly forecasted wind component than in
previous days, the plume should be in the ship channel region early,
than advect towards downtown by early afternoon and NW sites by late
afternoon. Models are starting to hint at precip chances for today,
however soundings from LCH and CRP last night show a very dry layer
remaining above the surface. Therefore, I expect any showers that do
develop to remain offshore and well east of Houston.
Max T 97-99 F (37 C)
Clouds scattered cumulus.
Quick Look at Tomorrow
Roughly similar today, except humidity (and cloud cover) will be
much higher (showers more likely than today) and winds are expected
to be lighter during the evening.
A ridge building over the southeastern US will bring unsettled
weather with possible widespread showers. Prevailing winds will be
from the east-northeast. Dirtiness of air mass will depend upon
extent of upstream and local showers, but it could be quite dirty.
Lighter large-scale winds than in the past few days would favor high
ozone. The urban plume would be advected toward the northwest, most
likely toward Austin.
Forecaster Karl Schulze